Skills and Tasks   |   Site Design   |   Print Marketing   |   CRM   |   Conversion Vans   |   Ebay and Videos   |   Savings   |   Other Stuff   |   Manheim Index vs S&P   |   Manheim LARGE graphs   |   Review


Hello Todd,
 Here is Used Car Management analysis that I created for Bresee's management back in Jan 06.  
Management was always "waiting" for the cars to get cheaper, leaving the shelves bear. THEN, in the time honored tradition of "Whipsaw Trading" mngt. would capitulate and  stock up.  Of course prices would fall when the market got soft & they'd hang on until their knuckles bled.  I created this study to help them with some decision making  disipline.

It's 2 charts with 11 years of data. (jan 95 to Jan 06)
  #1). TOP:       The Manheim Used Vehicle Index (MUVI)
  #2). BOTOM: The S&P 500.

Notice the correlation of the direction of trends AND the dates the trends break (up and down).

   The S&P500 and the Manhiem Used Vehicle Index (MUVI) are closely correlated.

This is how I interpert these 2 charts and make it "actionable".

IF TREND IS UP
#1). Buy Side.    Finding great deals is time consuming yet, it's important to keep inventory counts up to sell units retail.
#2). Sell Side.    Although age is the enemy of margins, it is far less so in this environment.

IF THE TREND IS DOWN
#1). Buy Side.    Patience, Patience, Patience. Buying below market is far easier,  so dont chase it up, we'll buy it for less soon enough.
#2). Sell Side.    Age is the enemy of margins, and in this environment operations have to be razor sharpe. Take the short deal.... CASH IS KING.

IF THE TREND IS CHANGING
Watch the S&P, It is a leading indicator of MUVI.
Example TOP:
There looks to be a nice rally in mid 02 to sell into. Eager buyers are still thinking full steam ahead.  They don't know the Used Vehicle market will be swiftly changing (soon, bidders will be passing on everything).
Example BOTTOM:
IF I am right and the MUVI is connected to prices in the lanes, then in early fall 2003, the S&P has sent us a buy signal.  This would have been a fine time to "back up the truck"  and agressivly cherry pick the best of the crop. I assume the fear ridden sellers were around for months (not knowing a turn up was in the cards).

Fast Forward to Today... Correlation is still holding:


I was a self employed stock trader from 1995 to 2001 (lived on the beach on Anna Maria Island in Fl. :-)
I was a technical analyst, a chart reader. I'd spend 10+ hours a day looking for correlations, deviations, trends, leaders and laggards.